Saxo Bank conducted another survey with its clients to gain insight into how they expect the markets to move in the third quarter.
Saxo’s latest client pulse survey shows a generally positive sentiment about global equity markets and industry performance, with the majority of respondents (43.6%) expecting growth in global equity markets. However, the biggest shift in sentiment since last quarter’s pulse survey (15.2% to 29.8%) was seen in the increased “no move” votes seen in the markets.
Based on the latest survey, a significant portion of investors identified geopolitical tensions (42.9%) and interest rates (37.1%) as the main factors likely to influence their investment strategies over the next three months. The upcoming US election also plays a critical role, with 32.8% of respondents seeing it as a major influence.
These concerns underscore heightened uncertainty in the global market, where political and economic events dictate investment sentiment and strategic adjustments.
When we look at the responses of nearly 2,300 clients on whether they think global stock markets will go up or down, there is a clear trend that different ages have different perspectives.
Although more customers aged 76+ still believe the markets will grow, they remain the demographic group with the most customers opting to taper into stocks, while nearly 60% of those under 35 remain bullish on stocks.
In terms of sector performance, respondents have identified key sectors that they believe will outperform.
Dominating expectations, 32.2% of respondents see this sector as the top performer, driven by ongoing digital transformation and technological advancements. That’s a slight drop in optimism from last quarter, when 33.7% of respondents pushed for IT.
The survey shows that 16.1% of customers favor healthcare as a sector that is likely to perform better. That’s a 168% jump from last quarter’s 6%.
Last quarter, the energy sector was the second most chosen sector believed to be the best performer in the second quarter with 17.4% of customer votes. However, this quarter saw a 63% drop in industry optimism, chosen by only 6.4% of customers. This moves the energy sector down from second to fifth place.
In terms of regional performance, North America remains the region that customers believe will perform best in the third quarter (47.6% of respondents). However, Europe has grown in optimism, going from being the market predicted to perform worst behind emerging markets, to jumping 143% to second place behind North America.
The survey was distributed to Saxo clients between 06/06/2024-18/06/2024 and consisted of 2,299 respondents. The survey was conducted in English, French, Dutch and Danish and sent to customers in the respective language markets.